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Thread: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

  1. #101
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Like some mathematical theorems, there are many ways to demonstrate that Putin's contention that Russia is not invading Ukraine is a lie. Vice News has come up with a new one:

    http://www.vox.com/2015/6/17/8795235...ukraine-troops

    Russian President Vladimir Putin insists — insists! — that he is definitely not invading Ukraine. The US and others say that, in fact, Russia has been sending military combat units into eastern Ukraine since August, where they are supporting pro-Russia rebels in the war against Ukraine government forces.

    But Vice News's Simon Ostrovsky, in a new report, tracks the social media postings of a Russian soldier to prove that Putin is lying and that Russia is in fact at war in Ukraine. In the above video, Ostrovsky retraces the steps of a Russian soldier named Bato Dambaev, who posted highly incriminating selfies all along his journey from his home in Russia's far east to a Russian military encampment near the Ukrainian border to a checkpoint within eastern Ukraine along the front lines of the war.

    Ostrovsky's investigation is based in large part on a recent Atlantic Council report that documents Russian soldiers' social media accounts, satellite photos, and many other pieces of open-source evidence to demonstrate that Russia's military is engaged in an undeclared war against Ukraine.


    If you read this subforum, you probably know why Putin is getting photographed like a loopy bum so often. But for the politically inexperienced, Vox's Amanda Taub comes to the rescue.

    http://www.vox.com/2015/6/17/8796659...hirtless-video

    You have probably seen the odd, and often shirtless, photo ops staged by Russian President Vladimir Putin. While most world leaders content themselves with appearing at sober state functions or occasional political rallies, Putin's official photocalls suggest a rich, Walter Mitty-esque fantasy life. He subdues tigers, rides horses, and communes with dolphins! He fires rifles and flies tiny aircraft! Kids and dogs love him! Also sometimes he performs dentistry!
    Disclaimer: My avatar is in no way, shape or form related to Russian attempts to boost Putin's sense of masculinity in order to combat his insecurity.

  2. #102
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Putin is also a judoka, a talented singer (even in English), and visited the depths of Lake Baikal in Siberia, the deepest and oldest lake in the world.

    There is no doubt Putin is a showoff.
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  3. #103
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Sanctions against Russia are extended into 2016 by the EU.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33221888

    EU foreign ministers have extended economic sanctions against Russia until the end of January 2016.

    The aim is to make Russia comply with the Minsk ceasefire accord signed with Ukraine in February, EU spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic tweeted.

    EU and US sanctions target associates of President Vladimir Putin and Russian state banks, military and energy firms.

    The ministers also launched a naval operation called EU Navfor Med, to track Mediterranean people smugglers.

    Initially European warships will just monitor the smugglers' activities - focused on Libya - and alert national authorities. Military intervention to stop the migrant boats would require UN authorisation.

  4. #104
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Russia provokes the Baltic countries by launching an enquiry about whether the Russian recognition of their independence was legal.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33325842

    The Russian chief prosecutor's office is to examine whether the Soviet Union acted legally when it recognised the Baltic states' independence in 1991.

    The investigation was described as an "absurd provocation" by Lithuania's Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius.

    Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were occupied by Soviet communist forces in 1940. The USSR broke up in 1991.

    Last week Russia's chief prosecutor declared illegal the transfer of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine in 1954.

    At the time Russia and Ukraine were republics of the USSR, under communist leader Nikita Khrushchev.

  5. #105
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    A rally of racist nationalists took place in Kiev:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33392991

    About 1,000 Ukrainian pro-government fighters and far-right supporters have marched through the centre of the capital, Kiev.

    Many burned tyres and wore balaclavas; some carried white supremacist flags.

    They called on the government to end the Minsk ceasefire accord and declare war on pro-Russian rebels in the east.

    The demonstrators say the Russian government is bringing troops and equipment into Ukraine, a claim that Russia has always denied.

    Many in the rally were from volunteer battalions and were dressed in their battle fatigues.

  6. #106
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    An informative glimpse into Ukrainian language politics:

    http://www.politico.eu/article/crisi...-language-war/

    The other day I took part in a Ukrainian talk show called “Freedom of Speech.” The format is an unusual one: Six local experts with credentials in the social sciences or in journalism sit three to a table, four special guests sit two to a table, two more surprise special guests arrive during the show and stand and perorate, and then of course there’s the host, a serious journalist called Andrei Kulikov. As one of 13 participants, I had the impression that I was watching television rather than making it, a feeling confirmed by the studio wall covered by a giant video screen with attractive graphics.

    Among other things it posts the main question to be discussed; this time, “Can Russia’s information war become a Third World War?” Guests sometimes talk about the main question, and sometimes about other things entirely. The program lasts anywhere between two and four hours, and runs late at night. Ukrainians love political talk shows, and millions watch this one on week nights.

    Sitting and listening to my 12 fellow participants, I was struck by the diversity and linguistic practices of the political class.
    On the other hand, there are some controversies about the official status of Russian.

  7. #107
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Feature speculating about how strong Putin's power base actually is:

    http://www.vox.com/2015/7/8/8845635/putin-is-weak

    ...

    From what you see about Putin in the headlines every day, you might reasonably conclude that it is naive to even ask the question. After all, in between macho, shirtless photo ops, the man has annexed the Crimean peninsula, backed a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine, and crushed or co-opted Russia's political opposition, all while allegedly enriching himself by millions or even billions of dollars via corrupt insider dealings.

    ...

    But appearances can be deceiving, and in the case of Putin's strength, that deception is precisely the point. Those shows of strength actually mask deep, systemic weaknesses.

  8. #108
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    In 8 days, it will be one year since flight MH17 has been shot out of the sky by an AA-missile launcher. Expect summaries like this:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...hot-down-plane

    When she heard the bang, Natalia Voloshina rushed out of the small, one-storey house that passes for the village administration office in Petropavlovka, and looked up at the sky.

    “I could see these tiny black dots high in the sky, which started getting closer and bigger, and then things started falling around us,” said the 43-year-old mayor of Petropavlovka, sitting at the same desk last week and recalling the afternoon of 17 July last year.

    “We realised they were pieces of plane, but first we assumed it was a military plane. The rebels had been shooting down Ukrainian military planes in the area in the preceding days.”

    The terrible truth soon became clear as dazed residents of Petropavlovka and other villages surveyed the fields around them. The remains were from Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which had apparently been shot out of the sky with a surface-to-air missile. All 298 people on the Amsterdam-Kuala Lumpur flight died.
    Someone opines that Russia's propaganda efforts are so laughable, they should not be countered.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...europe-america

    There is something of a panic in the west at the moment over fears that it is losing the “information war” with Russia.

    On one level, this may be true. The Kremlin is undoubtedly engaged in a multi-front, multi-message, multimedia campaign to undermine America and Europe.

    Everything from the pre-eminence given tin-hatted conspiracy theorists on the English-language state TV channel RT to the infamous troll houses and the efforts to demonise figures such as US State Department spokeswoman, Jen Psaki, testify to this.

    But before the west turns to info-warriors of its own, it ought to consider the weaknesses and consequences of the Russian campaign.
    However, this overlooks that some Russian minorities in Eastern Europe are/were only served by Russian channels. Focusing on media pluralism doesn't seem a bad idea at all, but it is indeed wise to stay away from propaganda.

  9. #109
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    In Putin's Russia, denying an international tribunal over the MH17 crash is a decent manoeuvre one day ahead of the anniversary of the crash.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33555298

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected calls for the establishment of a UN tribunal to prosecute suspects in the MH17 air disaster over Ukraine.

    Mr Putin made the remarks ahead of the first anniversary of the crash, which killed 298 people, on Friday.

    Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said a tribunal would help secure justice, but Mr Putin said it would be "premature".

    Meanwhile, 17 families have filed a $900m (Ł576m) lawsuit against a Russian former rebel.

    A writ filed in Chicago in the United States on Wednesday claimed that Igor Strelkov, a Russian also known as Igor Girkin, was acting with the "actual or apparent" authority of President Putin's government when the Malaysia Airlines jet was shot down over eastern Ukraine.

  10. #110
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    And News Corp releases new footage allegedly from the day of the crash roughly a year later. (Cynical.) The footage is slated to have been smuggled from Donetsk. The authenticity of the sound is as of now still disputed.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-1...bishop/6626300

    Newly released footage showing Russian-backed rebels rifling through the belongings of dead passengers in the wreckage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 has been described as "sickening" by Foreign Minister Julie Bishop.

    The footage was released this morning by News Corp on the one-year anniversary of the shooting down of the passenger jet above eastern Ukraine, which killed all 298 people on board.

    In the video the rebels express dismay when they realise the aircraft is a commercial airliner, not a fighter jet.

  11. #111
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Not just that, but apparently, the rebels did not realize that the jet had the Malaysian flag on it, not the American flag, though to be fair, both flags look similar from afar.
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Several French right MPs have visited Crimea.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33633874

    France and Ukraine have condemned a visit to Crimea by a group of French MPs in defiance of Western sanctions against Russia.

    The sanctions were imposed after Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014. The peninsula is legally part of Ukraine.

    Thierry Mariani and about 10 other centre-right Republican Party MPs arrived in Crimea on Thursday.

    The French Foreign Ministry said it was a "violation of international law". Ukraine called the MPs "irresponsible".
    So the largest force on the mainstream right is cozying up to Russian occupation in Crimea, while the nutty right of the Front National has money strings to Putin. Since Hollande's popularity ratings are less than dismal, this is a risk to maintaining the current line against Russia in the future (although he may well win the next elections, since the right is rather divided).

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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Russia has vetoed the proposal for an international tribunal, as has been widely foreseen.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33710088

    Russia has used its veto at the UN to block a draft resolution to set up an international tribunal into the MH17 air disaster in July 2014.

    It was the only nation at the 15-member UN Security Council to oppose the move, triggering widespread condemnation.

    The Malaysia Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur crashed in eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board.

  14. #114
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Buk missile scenarios are corroborated by recent finds on ground zero:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33865420

    Fragments of a suspected Russian missile system have been found at the Flight MH17 crash site in Ukraine, investigators in the Netherlands say.

    They say the parts, possibly from a Buk surface-to-air system, are "of particular interest" and could help show who was behind the crash.

    But they say they have not proved their "causal connection" with the crash.
    This discovery would not yet establish who fired the missile, of course.

  15. #115
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Russia has convicted an Estonian security official to 15 years incarceration for espionage. Estonia and the EU condemned the trial as a kangaroo court.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33986733

    A court in Russia has sentenced Estonian security official Eston Kohver to 15 years in prison for espionage and other charges.

    Kohver was detained at the Russian border on last September in a case that provoked a diplomatic row.

    Estonia and the EU insist the officer was abducted on Estonian soil. Kohver says he is not guilty.
    I think nobody here is inclined to randomly believe the Russian side of this side, as they are demonstrated pseudomaniacs.



    Putin has courted controversy by making an official visit to Crimea.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33985325

    It was a typical display by Russia's action-man President, Vladimir Putin, clambering into a mini submarine and plunging to the depths of the Black Sea.

    The waves first washed over his glass bubble, then swallowed it, with underwater cameras capturing the slow slide down.

    Officially, the dive was designed to view an ancient shipwreck on the seabed.

    But it was also about demonstrating who is boss here now. Vladimir Putin is spending three days in Crimea with a whole delegation of senior Russian politicians and business figures in tow.

  16. #116
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Violent clashes in Kiev followed Ukrainian nationalist protests over a law that grants more autonomy to eastern regions. This is related to a long-standing part of Poroshenko's platform and was part of the Minsk ceasefire (that never was). Several law enforcement officers have died.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34112881

    A third member of Ukraine's national guard has died from injuries after Monday's violent protests outside the parliament in Kiev, officials say.

    The clashes - involving nationalists - erupted after MPs gave initial backing to reforms granting more autonomy to rebel-held eastern Ukraine.

    The first death was reported after a grenade was thrown by a protester.

    A ceasefire agreed between Ukrainian government troops and the pro-Russian separatists is reported to be holding.

    Violence had escalated in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in recent weeks, but the two sides agreed last week that from 1 September all violations of a February truce would cease.

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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Ukraine condemns elections held by separatists as illegal and places sanctions on several organisations and people, including some foreign journalists, in connection to the Russian annexation of Crimea.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34275394

    A decision by rebels in eastern Ukraine to hold elections poses a "great danger" to the peace process, President Petro Poroshenko has warned.

    He also announced sanctions on over 400 people and 90 legal entities held responsible for Russia's annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the east.

    The leader of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic earlier confirmed the elections would be held on 18 October.

    The neighbouring Luhansk rebel region wants to stage elections on 1 November.

    The government in Kiev - backed by the EU and the US - says such votes would be in violation of the peace deal signed in Minsk, Belarus, in February.

    The agreement envisages that elections in the rebel-held parts can only be held according to Ukrainian law.
    The blacklist includes top Russian government officials and separatist leaders in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

    A number of foreign journalists - including some from the BBC - are also on the list.

    In response, BBC's foreign editor Andrew Roy said: "This is a shameful attack on media freedom. These sanctions are completely inappropriate and inexplicable measures to take against BBC journalists who are reporting the situation in Ukraine impartially and objectively and we call on the Ukrainian government to remove their names from this list immediately."

  18. #118
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Much of the controversy over journalists seems to have been cleared.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34282136

    Ukraine is to remove the names of three BBC journalists from a sanctions list that has been criticised as "absurd" by one rights group.

    Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko signed a decree on Wednesday, naming almost 400 people and 90 legal entities as security threats.

    Mr Poroshenko's press secretary and the UK ambassador to Ukraine tweeted that the three names would now be removed.

    Journalists from Spain and Germany were also taken off the list.
    The AP news agency said two of the Spanish journalists had disappeared in Syria in July and were believed to have been kidnapped by the Islamic State group.

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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Juncker stated that relations with Russia should improve.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34486157

    The EU must restore a "practical relationship" with Russia and not let the US "dictate" that policy, the European Commission chief has said.

    Jean-Claude Juncker criticised US President Barack Obama's description of Russia as merely "a regional power".

    EU-US sanctions were imposed on Russia because of its intervention in Ukraine. Mr Obama had a frosty meeting recently with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    "Russia must be treated decently," Mr Juncker said in Germany.

    "We must make efforts towards a practical relationship with Russia. It is not sexy but that must be the case, we can't go on like this," he said, during a visit to Passau in southern Germany.
    I'm unsure whether this comment has any bite, but it's probably a bad idea to improve relations with Russia right now. Especially if it's mostly unconditional as Juncker's line suggests, because Russia has been completely non-committal.

  20. #120
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Enquiry into the cause of the MH17 crash ascribes it to a Buk missile. (That's not really new information, of course, but confirmation is good - even if the conclusions are very careful.)

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34511973

    Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 crashed as a result of a Russian-made Buk missile, the Dutch Safety Board says.

    The missile hit the front left of the plane causing other parts to break off, it said in a final report into the July 2014 disaster, which killed 298 people.

    The West and Ukraine say Russian-backed rebels brought down the Boeing 777, but Russia blames Ukrainian forces.

    The report does not say who fired the missile, but says airspace over eastern Ukraine should have been closed.
    Oh, and the Russian Buk manufacturer poisoned the well. And they did it with a theory that's inconsistent with the launch area of the Buk missile according to the Russian Federation defence group, no less.

  21. #121
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    The tone of this article is probably too alarmist (Russia wasted a lot of military power in Syria), but the contention that Russia's main interest is authority in and over Europe is sober and sound. In fact, the wish for a rebirth of a Russian Empire dominating its European (and Caucasian, in the geographical sense) client states is a fairly explicit desire among the mainstream/loopier parts of Russian politics.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...-europe-russia

    While European leaders believe they are edging towards a solution to the refugee crisis after securing a deal with Turkey, another power watches closely from afar: Russia.

    A tweet from its foreign ministry spokeswoman said much this week. “The migration crisis has been caused by irresponsible attempts to spread western-type democracy to the Middle East,” was the message from Maria Zakharova, hours before EU leaders were set to convene in Brussels. It didn’t just reflect Moscow’s well-known resistance to anything that smacks of western-driven regime change – it was also meant as a rebuke.

    Russia has been accused of “weaponising” the refugee crisis as a way of destabilising Europe – a claim recently reinforced by Nato’s top commander in Europe. That assertion may well be disputed. What is beyond doubt is the continuing need to know what Russia is thinking, and what goals it might pursue as it watches the EU confront multiple crises.

    To get a glimpse into Vladimir Putin’s mind, it’s worth reading the recent writings of his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. In a long article published this month by the Moscow-based magazine Russia in Global Affairs– translated here into English – Lavrov spells it out with clarity. What Russia wants is nothing short of fundamental change: a formal, treaty-based say on Europe’s political and security architecture. Until Russia gets that, goes the message, there will be no stability on the continent. The key sentence in the article is this: “During the last two centuries, any attempt to unite Europe without Russia and against it has inevitably led to grim tragedies.”

  22. #122
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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    Ukraine's new prime minister could mean an ominous strategical return to the corrupt and oligarchic status quo, or to a less neoliberal course. Worrying is that these two don't have to exclude one another.

    https://theconversation.com/ukraine-...-in-kiev-57671

    The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s unruly parliament, voted on April 14 to accept the resignation of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, leader of the People’s Front party. The prime minister, who has been in post since the Euromaidan uprising in February 2014, reluctantly announced on April 10 that he intended to leave office.

    President Petro Poroshenko’s eponymous parliamentary bloc narrowly approved the appointment of the current speaker of the parliament, Volodymyr Groysman, who has long been closely associated with the president, as Yatsenyuk’s successor. As horse trading took place in recent days over the ministerial line-up, it was unclear whether Groysman would garner the necessary 226 votes to be confirmed as prime minister, but he was finally approved with 257 votes to 50.

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    Re: Rising Tensions with Ukraine and Russia

    So Putin is mobilising troops near Ukraine. Here's some context:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426...ukraine-border

    Russia is sending tens of thousands of troops to military installations near its border with Ukraine and holding snap military drills, sparking fears that a Russian invasion is imminent.

    These fears are overblown, however, for one major reason that everyone seems to have overlooked: The Ukrainian military of today is very different from the ramshackle, demoralized force of 2014.

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